PLOS Medicine

Summary Background We used sequential target trial emulation (TTE) to examine associations between opioid analgesic initiation and adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes while accounting for gestational timing, time at risk, and potential confounding. Methods Using the Early Life Course platform, comprising linked population-based data for births in New South Wales, Australia (2013-2019), we emulated a new trial at each gestational week, comparing women who initiated a prescribed opioid analgesic with eligible non-initiators. Baseline covariates were balanced using inverse probability weighting. Weighted logistic regression estimated odds ratios (ORs) for neonatal outcomes, postpartum haemorrhage, and severe maternal morbidity. Pooled logistic regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for other maternal outcomes, combined across gestational weeks using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses assessed unmeasured confounding, exposure misclassification, and potential reverse causation. Findings Among 511,357 pregnancies, over 80% of opioid initiators received only one dispensing. Opioid initiation was not associated with increased risks of placental abruption (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.75-1.16), severe maternal morbidity (OR 1.05, 0.97-1.11), postpartum haemorrhage (OR 0.98, 0.95-1.02), low Apgar score (OR 0.99, 0.87-1.08), small for gestational age (OR 0.90, 0.85-0.95), or neonatal abstinence syndrome (OR 0.98, 0.72-1.30). Risks were elevated for PPROM (HR 1.10, 0.98-1.23), preterm birth (HR 1.26, 1.19-1.33), severe neonatal morbidity (OR 1.08, 1.02-1.17), and perinatal death (OR 1.29, 1.10-1.52). Perinatal death estimates attenuated in analyses addressing potential reverse causation. Interpretation Using a TTE approach that accounted for gestational timing and time at risk, we found no appreciable increase in most maternal or neonatal outcomes following predominantly short-term opioid initiation. Elevated risks of preterm birth, perinatal death, and third-trimester PPROM may reflect causal effects or confounding by pregnancy-related indications. Studies using time-appropriate designs and detailed information on prescribing indications and their timing are needed to clarify these associations.

BACKGROUND: Regional stroke-prevention priorities usually rest on what a bloc's members share. Where members span multiple Global Burden of Disease (GBD) super-regions and genetic ancestry groups, population, individual, and genetic evidence face different transportability limits, and earlier combined studies did not prespecify what counts as disagreement. METHODS: We studied the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which spans four super-regions and five ancestry groups and is land-contiguous. For five metabolic risk factors we triangulated GBD 2023 attributable fractions of stroke DALYs in ten states, incident stroke among 7896 adults in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-18; SHRs per 1 SD), and subtype-specific Mendelian randomisation in three ancestries. An explicit rule set, with one pre-submission amendment, classified convergence and divergence by whether a listed mechanism accounted for it. FINDINGS: High systolic blood pressure converged: 53-71% of attributable DALYs, the strongest cohort exposure (SHR 1.37, 95% CI 1.26-1.48), and genetically supported in both ancestries. LDL cholesterol (GBD attribution restricted to ischaemic stroke; European genetic evidence for that subtype; no cohort association) and body-mass index (last in attribution but second in the cohort, with a 1.80-fold [1.48-2.18] gradient inside the 20-25 kg/m2 minimum-risk window) showed structural discordance. The cohort lacked subtype data to establish LDL dilution. Fasting glucose and kidney dysfunction diverged without such a mechanism. INTERPRETATION: Systolic blood pressure had the strongest cross-stream support. LDL cholesterol and body-mass index require qualified interpretation; fasting glucose and kidney dysfunction could not be ranked reliably. The framework identifies where priorities require scrutiny. FUNDING: None.

Importance: In the US, Human papillomavirus (HPV) related cancers cause significant morbidity and mortality, yet HPV vaccine is underutilized. Vaccination is recommended routinely at age 11-12 years but can be given at 9 years. There is controversy about whether earlier introduction would increase completion of the HPV series before by age 13 years or whether it might decrease rates of delivery of other routinely recommended vaccines at 11-12-years [quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate (MenACWY) vaccine, and tetanus-diptheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine]. Objective: To determine whether introduction of the HPV vaccine at ages 9-10 versus 11-12 years, results in earlier median age of series completion (primary outcome) and higher rates of initiation and completion by age 13 years. We also examined the effect of earlier introduction of HPV on rates of Tdap and MenACWY initiation and completion by age 13 years. Design: Two-arm cluster-randomized trial involving 31 pediatric practices in Colorado and California between 10/2021-4/2026. Practices were randomized using covariate constrained randomization within each state to Intervention (introduction of HPV vaccination at ages 9-10) or Control (introduction at ages 11-12). Both study groups received similar annual training about best practices for HPV vaccination with recommended initiation age as the only difference. Results: Age at HPV series completion was substantially earlier in the Intervention group (median 12.2 v. 13.3 years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.37; 95% CI 1.94-2.89). Key secondary outcomes were also improved in the intervention group: age at series initiation (median 11.0 v. 11.8 years; aHR 2.19; 95% CI 1.84-2.62), series completion by 13 years (61.6% v. 45.1%; RR 1.37; 95% CI 1.04-1.74), and vaccine initiation by age 13 years (77.1% v. 67.0%; RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.00-1.33). The intervention group was more likely to receive Tdap (aHR 1.47;95%CI 1.13, 1.92) during the trial; receipt of both vaccines by age 13 years did not differ. Conclusions: Earlier introduction of HPV vaccination resulted in earlier age of series completion, and more adolescents initiating and completing the series by age 13 without decreasing rates of other routinely recommended vaccines. Our findings support a preferential recommendation at 9-10 years. Trial registration number: NCT04722822 ClinicalTrial.gov

Objectives: To compare high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) profiles in Korean and US adults with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) below 100 mg/dL and examine differences after adiposity adjustment. Study design: Cross-sectional analysis of national health examination surveys. Methods: We analysed the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2022-2024 (n=5,785) and US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey August 2021-August 2023 (n=1,056). Eligible adults had Sampson-calculated LDL-C below 100 mg/dL and hsCRP of 10 mg/L or less; elevated hsCRP was defined as 2-10 mg/L. We estimated survey-weighted prevalence differences and adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs). Results: LDL-C distributions closely overlapped (weighted medians, 79.7 vs 80.1 mg/dL), whereas median hsCRP was 0.50 vs 1.34 mg/L. Elevated-hsCRP prevalence was 12.2% in Korea and 35.7% in the United States (difference, 23.5 percentage points; 95% CI, 19.4-27.7); the age-sex-standardised difference was 23.4 percentage points. Among 6,235 common complete cases, the age-sex-adjusted US-versus-Korea PR was 2.86 (95% CI, 2.48-3.30), decreasing to 1.66 (1.40-1.98) after waist circumference adjustment and 1.92 (1.62-2.26) after body mass index adjustment. Conclusions: Similar LDL-C distributions coexisted with markedly different hsCRP profiles. Waist adjustment attenuated the between-country contrast more than BMI adjustment, supporting joint consideration of inflammatory, lipid and anthropometric measures in population surveillance.

Background Long-acting HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (LAP) could transform HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but its public-health impact and value-for-money will depend on whether programmes can reach people at greatest risk. We quantified the potential impact and efficiency of targeted LAP deployment across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We developed a deterministic, age-structured compartmental model of HIV among adults aged 15 years or older in African countries accounting for 98% of adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was assumed to reach 95% coverage by 2030 in all countries. LAP was assumed to reduce HIV acquisition by 96%. In model analyses, LAP was allocated according to rules that specify the degree to which programmes can effectively allocate it to those at greatest risk of acquiring HIV, including using a person's district, sex and age-group, and other signals of risk. Findings Across 34 countries, allocating a fixed quantity of LAP by district, sex and age averted 2 - 21 times as many infections as uniform allocation; perfect identification of within-group risk, an upper bound, raised this to 5 - 32 times. Multipliers were largest in low-prevalence countries, where absolute impact was smallest; in higher burden settings, they were 2 - 6 and 5 - 11, respectively. If 3 million people used LAP from 2028 in the 11 countries currently receiving Global Fund-supported lenacapavir, uniform allocation would avert about 41,000 infections by 2050, targeting by district, sex and age about 601,000 (range 360,000 - 1,660,000), and perfect risk targeting about 972,000 (490,000 - 3,570,000). Discounted averted ART costs fully offset LAP costs by 2050 at a total cost of up to ~US$50 per person-year with perfect risk targeting, $30 with targeting by district, sex and age, and $2 with uniform allocation. Expansion to 15 million users by 2035 brought modelled adult incidence across sub-Saharan Africa below 0.1 per 1000 person-years in 2049, about a decade earlier than projected without LAP, under the assumption that ART coverage reaches 95% in every country by 2030. Interpretation Targeting determines both the impact and the net cost of LAP. Allocation by district, sex and age is feasible now and multiplies the infections averted by each person-year of LAP. LAP offsets its cost through averted treatment only when it is targeted and its fully loaded cost is near the low end of current estimates. Better identification of people at highest risk within demographic groups, and sustained use among them, could add substantially to impact. The same approach could guide the allocation of LAP in other settings where HIV risk is concentrated.

Background: In England, a national school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme was introduced in September 2008. Routine vaccination against HPV16/18 is offered to girls aged 12-13 and a 'catch-up' offer ran for girls aged 14-18 during the programme's first two years. Methods: Data from 19,407 women aged 25-29yrs attending cervical screening across England 2016-2025 were collected and residual samples from 4,837 high-risk (HR) HPV-screening-positive women were genotyped to monitor type-specific HR-HPV prevalence and evaluate vaccination impact. Results: Type-specific HR-HPV results were available for 3,683 HR-HPV-screen-positive samples. Estimated age-adjusted prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 87-94%) and 84% (95%CI: 65-93%) lower respectively among routine-eligible women than vaccination-ineligible women. Large declines were also observed for HPV31 (85% [95%CI: 72-92%]) and HPV45 (84% [95%CI: 73-90%]) but not for other HR-HPV types. Among 618 women with cytological abnormalities, HPV16/18 was present in samples from 53.9% (95%CI: 34.8-73.1%) of vaccination-ineligible, 18.1% (95%CI: 13.5-22.7%) of catch-up-eligible, and 6.5% (95%CI: 3.6-9.3%) of routine-eligible women. Conclusions: The early years of the HPV vaccination programme in England conferred strong protection against HPV16, 18, 31 and 45, and dramatically changed the target remaining for screening strategies to detect and reduce cervical disease.

Abstract Background: Randomized trials show substantial weight loss with semaglutide and tirzepatide under structured care, but little is known about whether patients in routine practice continue therapy, reach a maintenance dose, and have their weight measured. Objectives: To describe the first year after initiation of semaglutide or tirzepatide for obesity, including care patterns, maintenance-dose attainment, weight documentation, and total body weight loss (TBWL). Methods: This retrospective cohort study used Epic Cosmos, an electronic health record network of >350 US health systems, to identify adults with obesity and without diabetes who initiated injectable semaglutide or tirzepatide in 2024. Outcomes over 12 months included prescribing persistence, discontinuation, switching, add-on therapy, and reinitiation; attainment of Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-labeled maintenance doses; availability of follow-up weight; and TBWL across progressively restricted populations. Results: Among 743,153 adults (60.1% semaglutide; mean age, 48.5 years; 72.5% female), 12-month prescribing persistence was 29.9% for semaglutide and 35.9% for tirzepatide. FDA-labeled maintenance-dose attainment was 28.3% and 55.0%, respectively, and only 8.8% and 16.4% remained prescribing persistent at a maintenance dose with a recorded weight at 12 months. About half of initiators lacked a 12-month weight. Among all initiators, [≥]5% TBWL was documented in 25.6% (semaglutide) and 30.4% (tirzepatide), rising to 51.9% and 61.9% among those with recorded weight, 66.1% and 79.5% among those also prescribing persistent, and 82.9% and 87.3% among those further at a maintenance dose. Conclusions: In routine practice, most patients initiating semaglutide or tirzepatide did not remain on therapy, reach a maintenance dose, and have weight documented through the first year. Documented weight loss was greatest among those completing each step of care, suggesting continuation, dose escalation, and monitoring as targets for improvement.

Introduction: Japan achieves high retention and viral suppression among people on antiretroviral therapy, yet treatment starts late. Most people obtain subsidised treatment through a physical disability certificate for HIV-related immune dysfunction, which requires two blood tests at least four weeks apart. We quantified the diagnosis-to-treatment cascade, identified who waits and tested whether the second test changes certification. Methods: Retrospective cohort of people newly diagnosed with HIV at 11 designated AIDS core hospitals in 2015 to 2024. We measured intervals from screening to hospital visit and to antiretroviral therapy, and emulated certification from the first test alone and from the two-test rule under every possible number of non-laboratory criteria (k = 0 to 8). Results: Of 1302 people (96% men; 68% with CD4 <350 cells/L or AIDS), 1036 (80%) followed the two-test pathway and 261 started treatment after one test, mostly because of AIDS or acute infection. People reached the hospital a median of 11 days after screening. Treatment then began a median of 70 days after the first visit in the two-test pathway and 11 days in the single-test pathway; 0.2% and 60.9% started within 14 days. Delay rose with CD4 count: 46 days when the mean count was [&le;]200 cells/L, 117 days when it was >500 with a laboratory criterion (16% of the two-test pathway) and 334 days when it was >500 without one (3%; adjusted hazard ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.23). Medians ranged from 35 to 96 days across facilities. The second test changed little: the first CD4 count agreed with the mean of two (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.959), HIV-RNA [&ge;]5000 copies/mL persisted in 97.6%, and certification status agreed in 99.0% for k [&ge;]1 (92.5% for k = 0), with discordance concentrated near 500 cells/L; the first test gave a milder grade in at most 2.9%. Conclusions: The statutory second test adds at least four weeks before antiretroviral therapy in Japan without changing who is certified, and delays most the people with the highest CD4 counts. Certification on a single test, with treatment separated from the subsidy procedure, would remove a delay that has no clinical or administrative justification.

Background: Age is an important determinant of tuberculosis (TB) risk, but population-level age patterns in TB prevalence have not been systematically quantified across settings. We conducted a systematic review of surveys conducted in low- and middle-income countries to quantify trends in TB prevalence across age groups. Methods: We collated age-stratified TB prevalence data for individuals aged 15+ years, from population-based surveys reported between 1993 and 2025. We analyzed data using Bayesian meta-regression models, estimating trends in bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB prevalence across age groups. We extended models to understand how age trends varied with alternative outcome definitions and data subsets, and examined correlations between TB age trends and sociodemographic determinants. We also estimated age-stratified notification-to-prevalence ratios as a measure of diagnostic delays for untreated TB. Findings: We included 82 unique surveys reporting age-stratified TB prevalence, spanning 30 countries and 4.6 million participants. These data demonstrated a pattern of increasing bacteriologically confirmed TB prevalence with older age, with each 10-year increase associated with a 30% (95% credible interval: 22, 38) increase in prevalence. TB prevalence for the oldest age group (75+: 796 per 100,000 [522, 1178]) was 6.4 (4.0, 10.4) times higher than the youngest (15-19: 127 per 100,000 [79, 186]), and positive age gradients were estimated for all countries (interquartile range: 23-40% increase per 10-year increase in age). Age gradients were lower in Africa compared to other regions, and for smear-positive compared to bacteriologically confirmed TB. Countries with HIV prevalence [&ge;]5% had flatter age gradients above 40 years of age. Age gradients declined slowly over the study period. Notification-to-prevalence ratios demonstrated a negative age gradient, declining by 10% (7, 14) per 10-year increase in age. Interpretation: The prevalence of untreated TB disease increases substantially throughout adulthood, and lower notification-to-prevalence ratios suggest poorer case detection among older individuals.

Background Women living with HIV (WLHIV) have an increased risk of persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer. We evaluated the lifetime health impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies targeting WLHIV across 13 African countries. Methods We developed an age-structured Markov model of HPV infection and cervical cancer in a closed cohort of 100,000 females, stratified by HIV status, and calibrated it separately for each country to age-specific cervical cancer incidence, cervical cancer mortality, and female HIV prevalence. Six HIV-targeted strategies were compared with routine two-dose vaccination at age 14 years. The strategies either provided a booster dose to previously vaccinated WLHIV or combined a booster for previously vaccinated WLHIV with a three-dose primary catch-up course for previously unvaccinated WLHIV. Interventions were delivered at ages 18 or 24 years under standard- and high-coverage assumptions. Outcomes included cervical cancer cases averted, cervical cancer deaths averted among WLHIV, discounted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, additional physical vaccine doses, and incremental costs from the health-system and vaccination-programme perspectives. Results All six strategies generated additional health gains relative to routine vaccination alone. Mean DALYs averted across countries ranged from 8.21 for booster vaccination at age 24 years to 81.36 for high-coverage combined booster and catch-up vaccination at age 24 years. Booster-only strategies produced the greatest health gains per additional physical vaccine dose, whereas the high-coverage combined strategy at age 24 years produced the largest average absolute health gain. However, the relative performance of vaccination at ages 18 and 24 years varied by strategy and country. From the health-system perspective, 68 of 78 country-strategy comparisons were more effective and less costly than routine vaccination after accounting for avoided cervical cancer treatment costs. From the vaccination-programme perspective, all strategies required additional expenditure. Conclusions HPV vaccination strategies targeting WLHIV generated additional health benefits beyond routine adolescent vaccination and were cost-saving in many country-strategy comparisons when avoided cervical cancer treatment costs were included. Booster-only strategies were the most dose-efficient, whereas combined booster and primary catch-up strategies produced larger absolute health gains. The relative performance of strategies delivered at ages 18 and 24 years was context dependent and should not be interpreted as evidence of a universal advantage of later vaccination. Given the limited direct evidence on the clinical effectiveness and duration of protection following HPV booster vaccination among WLHIV, the booster scenarios should be interpreted as exploratory.

Abstract Background Estimates of the healthcare costs associated with influenza treatment are essential for cost-effectiveness analyses that inform preventative and treatment strategies such as vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Existing evidence varies across treatment settings, age groups, and countries and there is little data from low- and middle-income settings. Methods We conducted an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses reporting direct admitted and non-admitted hospitalisation costs of seasonal influenza treatment in children, adults, and older people. We supplemented an evidence gap with a systematised review of studies reporting adult non-admitted treatment costs. Costs were extracted and adjusted to 2023 USD. We fitted a Bayesian mixed-effects model to estimate influenza treatment costs using national economic indicators, age group, and treatment setting as a priori predictors. We predicted admitted and non-admitted treatment costs for children, adults, and older people in 195 countries and territories. Results Seven reviews were included in the umbrella review, supplemented by 17 primary studies for adult non-admitted care. Extracted data points most frequently described admitted treatment costs and came from high-income countries. The best-fitting model used healthcare expenditure per capita to predict treatment costs, with country-level random effects. Estimated costs increased with healthcare expenditure per capita, were higher for admitted than non-admitted care, and were highest for adults and lowest for children. Conclusions This study provides novel estimates of influenza-associated healthcare costs across age groups and treatment settings by synthesising the available global evidence. By extrapolating to settings without data, our estimates can inform future economic evaluation studies of influenza interventions worldwide.

Elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a major modifiable driver of cardiovascular morbidity. Digital food-as-medicine and home-blood-pressure-monitoring programs increasingly support its management outside the clinic, but most published evaluations are single-arm, pre/post designs; because enrolment is conditioned on an elevated baseline reading, regression to the mean (RTM) is expected to inflate any observed improvement, and this is rarely checked against an internal comparator. We conducted a retrospective, single-arm cohort study of home blood-pressure monitoring within a commercial digital food-as-medicine program serving a US employer-sponsored population with obesity. Of 329 members included, 136 were at-goal (<130/80 mmHg), 74 at Stage 1 (130-134/80-84 mmHg) and 119 at Stage 2 ([&ge;]135/85 mmHg) at baseline; follow-up SBP was evaluable for 128, 68 and 112 members in these strata at 3 months and for 62, 34 and 53 at 6 months, respectively. The primary estimand was the unadjusted within-member change in home SBP at 6 months among members with Stage-1 and Stage-2 blood pressure at baseline; a secondary estimand corrected for RTM using an ANCOVA linear mixed model with the at-goal stratum as an internal negative-control population. Among Stage-1 members (n = 34), unadjusted SBP change was -4.36 mmHg (95% CI -7.43 to -1.28; p = 0.0069), paired with an RTM-corrected secondary change of -3.33 mmHg (-6.40 to -0.26; p = 0.033). Among Stage-2 members (n = 53), unadjusted change was -10.17 mmHg (-12.94 to -7.40; p < 0.001), paired with an RTM-corrected secondary change of -5.50 mmHg (95% CI -8.50 to -2.50; p = 0.00037); RTM accounted for ~24% and ~46% of the unadjusted decline in Stage-1 and Stage-2, respectively. RTM-corrected estimates were robust to sensitivity analyses on measurement modality, seasonality, covariates and model specification, with no evidence of attrition bias. Program participation was associated with a decline in home SBP among Stage-1 and Stage-2 members that remained significant, though smaller, after RTM correction, supporting RTM-adjusted SBP change as the appropriate metric for evaluating food-as-medicine interventions.

Background: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is associated with increased dementia risk, but its long-term relationship with dementia, variation by age and subtype, and how this risk compares with that associated with alcohol consumption remain poorly characterised. We investigated these questions in a large prospective cohort of UK women. Methods: We analysed Million Women Study participants recruited aged 50-64 years and followed for more than 20 years through linked health records. Women with hospital-recorded AUD were matched to up to five controls. Cox models estimated associations between time-varying AUD and incident dementia overall, by subtype and attained age, with exposure lags of up to 15 years and competing-risk analyses. Self-reported alcohol consumption was analysed separately. Findings: Among 1,288,359 women, 20,070 with AUD were matched to 100,339 controls. Dementia occurred in 3,774 women with AUD and 8,239 matched controls. AUD was associated with all-cause dementia (HR=3.73 [95% CI 3.52-3.95]), with strongest associations for mixed (5.03 [3.88-6.51]), unspecified (4.29 [3.92-4.70]), and vascular dementia (3.96 [3.44-4.56]). Associations were substantially stronger before age 70 years (10.68 [9.02-12.63]) than at ages 70-79 years (3.75 [3.47-4.04]) or 80 years or older (2.34 [2.11-2.60]). Risk remained elevated with a 15-year lag (2.16 [1.81-2.58]) and after accounting for competing mortality. Associations with self-reported alcohol consumption were substantially weaker. Interpretation: Clinically recognised AUD identifies women at markedly increased and prolonged dementia risk, particularly at younger ages and for vascular and mixed dementia, not captured by drinking quantity alone. People with AUD should be considered a priority population for earlier dementia prevention and risk reduction. Funding: Wellcome Trust Career Development Award to AT (306069/Z/23/Z); NIH grants P50AA012870 and R01DA054869 (JG). The Million Women Study is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant number UKRI1464).

Existing prediction models for obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS) often rely on traditional regression, lack external validation, and, when fitted on multicenter data, fail to account for hospital-level clustering. We aimed to develop and temporally validate mixed-effects machine learning models for OASIS and compare them with traditional regression models. A secondary aim was to evaluate whether macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g) could substitute for continuous birth weight. We conducted a retrospective nationwide cohort study of singleton, term ([&ge;]37 weeks), cephalic vaginal deliveries in the Dutch Perinatal Registry. Data from 2016 to 2019 were used for model development with three-fold cross-validation; data from 2020 were reserved for temporal validation. Candidate predictors included 18 demographic, obstetric, and neonatal factors. We developed six models: mixed-effects gradient boosting (MEGB), mixed-effects LASSO (ME-LASSO), and backward stepwise logistic regression, each with either birth weight or macrosomia. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration by calibration plots, and prediction accuracy by the Brier score. Among 614,255 deliveries, OASIS occurred in 2.6%. In temporal validation including macrosomia, MEGB achieved the highest discrimination (AUC 0.727; 95% CI 0.719-0.735), significantly outperforming ME-LASSO (AUC 0.719; 95% CI 0.710-0.727; P<.0001) and stepwise logistic regression (AUC 0.714; 95% CI 0.706-0.722; P<.0001). Including birth weight marginally improved performance, with macrosomia serving as an effective proxy. Consistently important predictors were nulliparity, prolonged second stage, mediolateral episiotomy, advanced maternal age, operative vaginal delivery, macrosomia, and previous cesarean delivery. Uncalibrated MEGB showed poorer calibration, but isotonic recalibration substantially improved it. After calibration, all models showed excellent agreement between predicted and observed risks. MEGB provided improved discrimination and comparable calibration relative to ME-LASSO and stepwise logistic regression. Replacing continuous birth weight with a binary macrosomia indicator resulted in minimal performance loss, suggesting it may suffice for clinical risk prediction across all three modeling approaches.

Background. Tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) with levofloxacin reduces tuberculosis disease incidence in multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR)-tuberculosis household contacts. However, with age, disease progression risk falls and the frequency of adverse events (AE) rises. Methods. To inform decision-makers, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanding the use of MDR/RR-TPT by age, with and without tests of tuberculosis infection. We modelled MDR/RR-household contact management (HHCM) in 189 countries, incorporating age-dependent risks of disease progression, death and AEs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as USD/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, and as a fraction of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Findings. Compared to baseline of MDR/RR-HHCM with TPT for those <15 years, adding TPT up to 45 years was cost-effective at a threshold of 30% GDP in 160/189 modelled countries including 17 of the 30 highest incidence countries. Of these 160 countries, the intervention was cost-saving in 46. Strategies targeting TPT to those testing positive for M. tuberculosis infection were dominated by those without testing. Globally, full use of MDR/RR-HHCM with TPT for all would avert 11,900 (10,400 to 13,800) episodes of tuberculosis, 9,960 (9,100 to 10,900) deaths, and 289,000 (262,000 to 321,000) DALYs, but would result in 71,000 (68,000 to 74,000) SAEs and cost $359 million (294 to 449). Interpretation. Expanding MDR/RR-TPT use to older ages without testing appears cost-effective in most settings, but may require substantial resources and result in large numbers of AEs. Funding. Unitaid

Routine facility-based testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains underutilised in India despite national screening policy. WHO has recommended HCV self-testing (HCVST) since 2021 to increase access to testing services. This study evaluated the HCVST by assessing its reach and uptake in urban-slum communities within Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India. The implementation study (CTRI/2023/07/054590) took place between 12th July 2023 and 31st August 2024. Three Primary Healthcare Centre (PHC) catchment areas were assigned to deliver either (1) facility-based HCVST, (2) home-based HCVST, or (3) standard of care (SoC). Facility-based delivery involved trained users offering kits to patients visiting the PHC (Site 1: Jwalapur 1), whereas home-based delivery (Site 2: Jwalapur 2) involved trained users and ASHAs approaching community households selected via a KISH grid. Primary outcomes were OPD-footfall standardized operational reach; the proportion offered testing out of the PHC catchement areas footfall, and uptake (acceptance among those offered). Secondary analysis explored demographic and behavioural predictors of those that refused to test. Of 7,091 outpatient department (OPD) footfall, 724 (10.2%) individuals were offered HCVST at intervention sites, of which 465 (64.2%) agreed to self-test. Operational reach was 17.8% (393/2,212; 95% CI: 16.2 to 19.5%) through the facility-based intervention and 14.4% (331/2,296; 95% CI: 13.0 to 15.9%) in the home-based intervention.HCVST uptake was higher through the home-based model (71.9%, 238/331, 95% CI: 66.7 to 76.7%) than in the facility (57.8%, 227/393, 95% CI: 52.7 to 62.7%). At the SoC site, only 11 individuals received standard of care HCV testing. The study HCV positivity was 1.1% (5/465; 95% CI: 0.35% to 2.49%): with four testing positive at the facility site (4/227), one at the community site (1/238), and none at the SoC site (0/11). Men were more likely to refuse HCVST than women (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.78, p=0.001).Participants in the facility-based model had 1.87 times higher odds of refusal compared to those in the home-based delivery model. There is minimal routine HCV testing in the OPD setting of Urban PHCs despite national screening policy. HCVST improved testing coverage and uptake in urban slums compared to SoC. However, HCV positivity was low overall, suggesting that untargeted screening - whether facility-based or home-based - may identify few infections without additional strategies to reach higher-risk populations.

BACKGROUND: Existing models for discharge to long-term institutional care after stroke are developed within single health systems and pool to an area under the curve near 0.80, but none is accompanied by an estimate of how much of the outcome is a property of the health system rather than the patient. METHODS: Secondary analysis of the International Stroke Trial, a randomised trial in 19,435 patients with suspected acute ischaemic stroke recruited in 1991-1996 across 36 countries. Among 14,885 survivors to six months with residence recorded, we developed and internally validated a logistic prognostic model for residential or nursing-home residence using 17 admission-day terms, and compared it against a pre-specified benchmark of age and stroke syndrome alone. Between-country variation was estimated by a method-of-moments decomposition with a cluster bootstrap. RESULTS: Institutional residence was recorded for 1,984 of 14,885 survivors (13.3%); the model was fitted on 14,121 patients containing 1,935 events. In 10-fold cross-validation with the whole procedure refitted per fold, the out-of-fold c-statistic was 0.789, calibration slope 0.987, calibration-in-the-large 0.1371 predicted against 0.1370 observed, and Brier score 0.1013. A benchmark of age and stroke syndrome alone reached an optimism-corrected 0.774 against 0.790 for the full model, a corrected difference of 0.0160. Between-country variation gave an intraclass correlation of 0.0409 (0.0191 to 0.0673), and in leave-one-country-out validation the c-statistic ranged from 0.635 to 0.823 across the 14 countries with enough events to estimate it. CONCLUSIONS: Institutional residence after stroke can be stratified at admission with discrimination comparable to existing models and calibration that holds in unseen patients, but almost all of the signal is carried by age and stroke syndrome. Performance varies substantially between countries, pointing to placement systems as the limit on what a pooled model can do.

Background: Handgrip strength is associated with cardiometabolic abnormalities, but whether it adds information once detailed adiposity and muscle mass are known is unclear. Methods: We studied adults aged 40-59 years from NHANES 2011-2012 (development, n=508) and 2013-2014 (temporal validation, n=616). The outcome was at least two of four non-adiposity abnormalities (elevated blood pressure, fasting glucose or triglycerides, or low HDL cholesterol); waist circumference was not part of the outcome. A prespecified feature ladder added DXA body fat percentage and visceral adipose tissue to age, sex, BMI and waist circumference (M1), then appendicular skeletal muscle index (M2), then absolute (M3A, primary) or weight-normalised (M3B) grip strength. Logistic regression was primary; elastic-net and XGBoost were supportive. Development performance used nested cross-validation; frozen models were scored once in the validation cohort. Paired increments used 2000 stratified bootstrap resamples. Results: The outcome occurred in 249 (49.0%) and 277 (45.0%) participants. Adding adiposity increased the logistic regression AUC by 0.0209 (95% CI 0.0024-0.0402) in development and 0.0209 (0.0032-0.0375) in temporal validation. Adding absolute grip strength to M2 changed the AUC by -0.0046 (-0.0107 to 0.0013) and 0.0045 (-0.0009 to 0.0098), respectively. All 12 grip-strength AUC increments across algorithms, definitions and cohorts had intervals that included zero. Calibration was unchanged and the incremental net benefit was not consistently positive. Model attributions to grip strength varied by algorithm. Conclusions: In middle-aged adults, detailed adiposity, but not grip strength, added reproducible information for concurrent cardiometabolic risk stratification beyond conventional anthropometry and muscle mass.

Background Cancer stigma contributes to low cervical cancer screening rates among Nepali women. However, no stigma reduction interventions have been implemented thus far in Nepal. This study assessed the effectiveness of a muticomponent cervical cancer stigma reduction intervention on cancer stigma scores and cervical cancer screening uptake rates among urban Nepali women. Methods A two-arm, parallel cluster-randomized trial was conducted in Budhanilkantha Municipality, Kathmandu District, Nepal. Twelve administrative wards were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention or control group, with wards serving as the unit of randomization and individual women as the unit of analysis. A total of 310 women aged 30-60 years who had not undergone cervical cancer screening during the previous five years were enrolled. The three-hour intervention included cervical cancer education, a video featuring cervical cancer survivors, participatory group discussions, and myth-versus-fact activities addressing cancer stigma. Cancer stigma was assessed two months after the intervention using the Nepali version of the Cancer Stigma Scale. Cervical cancer screening uptake was assessed six months after the intervention. Data were analyzed using intent-to-treat and as treated approaches with a generalized estimation equation with logistic regression. Results From June 2022 to February 2023, 310 women were enrolled. At 2 months, stigma data were available for 248 participants (120 intervention, 128 control). In the intention-to-treat analysis, the odds of cancer stigma were lower in the intervention group than in the control group (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.8; p=0.022). Odds were also lower for the severity domain (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.90; p=0.048) and awkwardness domain (OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.56; p=0.001) with no differences in other subdomains. At 6 months, the odds of cervical cancer screening was 3.9 times greater in the intervention group than in the control group (95% CI: 1.1-13.20, p=0.028). As treated analysis reinforced these findings, with lower odds of stigma (AOR:0.09, 95% CI: 0.01-0.53, p=0.007), severity (AOR:0.16, 95% CI: 0.06-0.42, p<0.001), and awkwardness (AOR:0.1, 95% CI: 0.02-0.44, p=0.02). Cervical cancer screening odds was 4.02 times higher in the intervention group (95% CI:1.1-13.7, p=0.026). Conclusions Compared with the control condition, participants allocated to a community-based multicomponent intervention designed to reduce cancer stigma had lower odds of elevated cancer stigma two months after the intervention and higher odds of cervical cancer screening by six months. Larger cluster-randomized trials with more clusters and longer follow-up are needed to assess the reproducibility, durability, and generalizability of these findings.

Background. Despite relatively high coverage of interventions to prevent vertical transmission, HIV incidence among children born to women living with HIV (WLH) remains above elimination targets, partly because of substantial disengagement from antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the postpartum period. We evaluated the effectiveness of a data-driven continuous quality improvement (CQI) intervention in improving retention in care, virological suppression, and prevention of vertical transmission among pregnant and breastfeeding WLH receiving ART in maternal and child health (MCH) clinics. Methods and findings. This pragmatic cluster-randomized trial was conducted in 105 MCH clinics--three high-volume clinics in each of the 35 health zones (HZs) of Kinshasa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. During the pre-randomization phase (November 2016-December 2017), routine data collection using prevention of mother-to-child transmission registers was strengthened in all participating clinics. In January 2018, HZs were randomized 1:1 to implement CQI or continue the standard of care. In intervention HZs, quality improvement (QI) teams were established at the HZ and clinic levels. Indicators selected collaboratively with QI teams were calculated from routine program data and shared quarterly. Through July 2019, QI teams met quarterly to identify service-delivery challenges and develop strategies to improve outcomes, with an emphasis on retention. Thereafter, responsibility for producing indicators was transferred to QI teams, and meetings continued virtually through WhatsApp. Pregnant and breastfeeding WLH and their infants receiving care at participating clinics between November 2016 and July 2019 were enrolled and followed for at least 24 months. Primary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTFU), viral suppression (<1,000 copies/mL), and a positive HIV test among live-born infants. Overall, 2,376 women were enrolled, including 1,217 (51.2%) before randomization. The analysis of CQI effectiveness included 1,900 participants who remained in care at randomization or enrolled thereafter: 1,103 (58.1%) in control HZs and 797 (41.9%) in intervention HZs. At 6, 12, and 24 months, LTFU was lower in the intervention group than in the control group: 18.6% versus 21.6% (adjusted risk difference [aRD], -5.2 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.6 to -0.8), 29.2% versus 31.0% (aRD, -3.9; 95% CI, -10.2 to 2.4), and 50.1% versus 55.5% (aRD, -7.1; 95% CI, -15.2 to 1.0), respectively. Estimated effects were larger in PEPFAR-supported and urban clinics, although interaction tests were not statistically significant. Viral-load results were available for 38.2%, 50.4%, and 73.5% of eligible participants at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Neither viral-load-result availability nor viral suppression differed between groups. Infant HIV-test results were available for 8.1%, 32.7%, 34.2%, and 28.5% of eligible infants at 6 weeks and 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Conclusions. CQI implementation produced a modest improvement in retention, with the clearest evidence at 6 months and favorable but imprecise estimates through 24 months. Limited availability of maternal viral-load and infant HIV-test results precluded definitive conclusions about virological suppression and vertical transmission. Local quality-improvement interventions may strengthen processes within frontline teams control but cannot alone overcome failures across an interconnected care system. Future studies should align interventions operational reach with all health-system levels responsible for the intended outcomes.